Ides of March 2014 - How 42pt makes life difficult

I have a relatively huge 42pt tournament coming up in a couple of weeks. I say relatively huge because this is probably the biggest Warmachine tournament in the NZ calendar, and it happens to be local. Yay!

This tournament is run by Soulless Dave, who enjoys the following things:

1 - Running sweet tournaments, which he can't play in otherwise he'd probably win those too.
2 - Giving me beer mugs.
3 - Shamelessly relishing how OP Cryx is.

Quite the gentleman.

Anyway, I have been told that Gator list building is faceroll and requires no decision making at all, and that playing Gators for so long has erased my ability to write "good" or "sound" lists for other factions. In light of these comments, I thought I would write a post about my list writing process for this 42pt nightmare.

First, I must admit that writing lists are the part of the hobby/game I enjoy the least. This could do with the fact that Gators have way less options than everyone else, or it could be related to how writing lists for my previous factions (Khador, PoM, Skorne) used to remind me that I would have a much better chance of winning games if I just bought X unit or Y solo for this specific list, or it could be related to how I would rather the game be as well balanced as people claim and lists had very little impact on the outcome of a game rather than a sizable one. But then I accept that a lot of people really enjoy the meta-game, and I too see the appeal in it, I just don't really experience the enjoyment of it too often.

Secondly, 42pts is a kick in the nuts, especially when you play Minions. Unlike most of the fleshed out big boy factions, it is very, very difficult to build 2 lists that answer enough matchups sufficiently. 3 lists might be alright, but two is very tight. In Minions, this is primarily a result of our casters being so dominant and being the primary "solutions" to problems we face. Factions like Legion, PoM or Cryx don't really have trouble making 2 lists that can more or less deal with more or less everything, simply through having a wide range of beasts, units, support and niche-filling mercs. That's not a luxury Minions have.
The higher the points, the more balanced the game is. That's been my experience in the past year anyway. I really think the meta would benefit on the whole from a push up to 60/65 pts, but that's another post altogether.

The Proto-Lists

These are the lists I started with, and I would have to choose 2 of these:

List 1: Rask

Spitter 

Snapper

5 Gatormans
5 Gatormans  
5 Gatormans
Min. Trogs
Gobbers  

4pts for "support"

3 Posse version. I take a Spitter in this list because the entirety of the damage potential of the list comes from cycling Fury on Gatormans and shooting off defensive upkeeps. High skill plays right there, woo! Anyway, having a Spitter is nice to clear jams and soften up targets at range. I guess he can also do stuff in melee with Paralysis and Fury and Boundless Charge and all that. Maybe.

The min. Trog unit and Gobbers more or less make Rask invincible, which either will result in my opponent wasting attacks on Rask, or ignoring Rask and his fish friends entirely so they are free to wreck havoc as they please. Either way, points usually well spent.

So the two questions with this list are '2 Posse, or 3 Posse?' and 'What to do with those 4pts?'

List 2: Barnabas

Wraster 

Spitter
Snapper

5 Gatormans
5 Gatormans  
5 Gatormans

Feralgeist

I would really, really like to throw in some solos like Croak Hunters, a Thrullg or Totem Hunter in there to give the list some flexibility, but 42pts! I think the beast composition is pretty fixed - without any Croaks, you really need a Spitter for some ranged presence, and Bull Snappers are too good to pass up between their sweet man-eating abilities and Spiny Growth on Barnabas.

The Wrastler could be changed for a Horror, however. More on that later.

List 3: Maelok

Bull Snapper
Bull Snapper
5 Gatormans
5 Gatormans  
5 Gatormans

Witch Doctor

Witch Doctor
 +9pts

Max Posse, the two Croctors I own, and 2 Bull Snappers to use up those beast points. This is pretty much the Maelok list I used at Battlecry this month (minus Pendrake), and does what you want Maelok lists to do - get a big unpredictable feat turn, then tank up and grind your way to victory.

The only real question is what to do about those last 9pts?

THEORYMACHINE TIME!

Some things are a given:

1. I have to play Rask to break ARM, and doubly so post-Colossals. Also he's like one of the best warlocks in the entire game, so there's that going for him too.
2. I have to bring at least 2 units of Gatormans per list, because 2 Posse is better than every other alternative in almost every situation. 3 Posse, in my opinion, is not a certainty however. 
3. The tournament is mid-March and has a fully-painted requirement, so I am unlikely to have Shamblers ready by then.

Because the field is so big, every faction is likely to be represented in some capacity. Except Pigs, since the only guy I know who plays Pigs told me he'd be playing Gators because his Gators are fully-painted (but really, he's just sick of Pigs).

Factions I don't really have to worry about in general:

• Skorne - any Rask list does great to decent here. There are of course builds that will hurt like Xerxis Cetrati brick or Zaal attrition, but in general it is not something I can really list tech against heavily.
• Retribution - Similar to Skorne. I think Rahn and eVyros Griffon spam can be a real worry, but not something I really have to tech for. As long as it's Rask, and perhaps Barnabas, we're alright. Gators shred infantry, and Fury kills heavies.
• Protectorate - similar to Skorne but more annoying. The Errant/Piper/Book combo is also cryx-level, jigglypuff-in-a-vaccuum-cleaner type of retarded, but since I have no anti-tough, I cannot do a single thing about it or the Gorman hiding behind them chaining Black Oils onto my stuff. They also usually have lots of magic weapons to skrew Maelok's feat.
• Circle - Most Circle stuff is squishy and dies to Gators. Gator casters are also real tough to assassinate so they lose that gameplan.
• Legion - a fair matchup for Gatormans, so it mostly comes down to how I play. Usually Legion has trouble dealing with so much ARM and anti-shooting. Note the comment on Vayl below however.
• Cygnar - Cygnar does Cygnar things. I have pretty good anti-shooting tech (which Siege ignores), but otherwise there's not much to specifically worry about. Rask is pretty good most of the time here.
• Trolls - For the most part, Trolls are like Gators except with crappier troops but way better lists, if you catch my drift. They can bring some problematic lists like Runes of War and eDoomshaper heavy spam. But I think it more or less comes down to two things: good play, and the troll player rolling 5s when he needs them.
• Mercs - Infantry dies, bad jacks are bad. The Merc Colossal skew can be a problem though, but overall the faction isn't really problematic.

Factions I have to worry about in general:

• Cryx - my arch nemesis. Infantry that destroys mine for half the cost + all undead and all that. Stupid. Does it with pretty much any caster.
• Khador - these guys are tough in a multi-list environment because they will always hit really hard in any list, but the possibility of IF Kayazy is quite a list-chicken problem for Gators (to Barnabas or not?). I don't think I have problems with specific casters as much as their general options and the many, many mercs they are sure to bring. It's like Cygnar, except it actually hurts.

Casters/builds I have to worry about specifically:

• eMorvahna - Maelok does so much better than Barnabas here on account of his feat and assassination potential. Barnabas does ok, but he does better than Maelok vs most other Circle stuff.
• Harbinger - Awe is public enemy number 1. MAT 5 is terrible. Of course I can make the Gators undead, but then I have to use 3pts down on a Croctor or two in the Rask list, and at 42pts that's a big support investment for only one caster. The alternative is to drop Maelok and hope like hell the second list isn't some jack spam list (which is a tall order).
  The feat is nasty as well but usually I can get in the zone after that and stay there till the end. She also brings the Errant tarpit up to mega-powered Ben Stiller fully retarded.
• Vayl - Incite, her feat, Dark Sentinel and Rampager can be really problematic for my lists. She is also a pretty popular caster around here. I do not like her, Sam I am. And there's not too much I can do about it. Barnabas is probably the best bet due to Pits + Iron Flesh + feat.
• Terminus - if I don't have a Thrullg, I probably lose. Sweet. People like Terminus as well so he's very likely to be pretty well represented in the field. Because hard skewing is fun for everyone.... said the guy playing 3 Posses.
• Bart/Galleon - this is a tough cookie. Theoretically, if I can shoot off Spiny Growth and cycle Fury, I can probably 1-round the Galleon. However every single other thing in the Galleon list is made to stop that happening and I get grinded out as Galleon gets repaired up every turn. So I probably drop Maelok or Barnabas, ignore Galleon and go for everything else, and hope it's a 2 zone scenario?
  I guess Rhulic casters with the Pooper Scooper also fits in here, but again, there is a near total lack of quality experience against quality lists on my part.
• Haley/Denny/hard control casters - The great thing about this is I can worry all I want, but can't really do jack about it. So I suck it up, hope the feat turn goes ok for my opponent while he timewalks over my play time, and we move on if I have anything left.

Decision 1 – Barnabas or Maelok?

The Barnabas list is a pretty good all around list. It does "ok vs Cryx" due to many Posse, his feat + Spitter. It does pretty well against Circle and Legion, even without Pendrake. I am also quite a bit better at playing him than I am at playing Maelok, which counts for something.

Maelok is much better vs Cryx, ok vs Circle (great against eMorvahna), ok vs Legion (mostly because I am not so good at playing him) and also has some game vs jammy infantry Zaal Skorne and most Trolls (even with the anti-incorp aura - if the Troll player is using it, then he's not using +1 STR and you live longer to grind).

Both have their strengths and weaknesses. Both feel a little gimped by 42pts rather than 50pts, Barnabas probably a little less. There is no real alternative (Calaban is a bad dream and Pigs are Pigs) outside these two for a second list. So I guess it just comes down to how I feel on decision day.

Decision 2 – Rask with 2 Posse, or 3 Posse?

The 2 Posse alternative involves dropping one Posse for WE+ Snapjaw (since he is probably the best combat heavy we have and does bad ass things with ALL THE BUFFS), and the Spitter for a Swamp Horror, since the Horror brings Elasticity for the two big Crocs and does some really good damage with Rask.

For the way I play, 3 Posse is better against Trolls while 2 Posse is better vs PoM and Skorne. This is from 50pt experience, where I will usually have Horror+Wrastler+Snapjaw in the Rask list and can blow stuff up with only a tiny charge lane by spreading the triple-heavy threat and then stacking buffs on the chosen heavy when the opportunity presents itself.

However at 42pts, you have a bit more space on the table and the 3 Posse skew can be really problematic for your opponent (a.k.a. skewy as balls). On the flipside, taking 3 Posse is also a hell of a lot less interesting for me tactically since it basically removes Boundless Charge from Rask's spell list and power attacks from mine. I do love me some power attacks... damn you Colossals. Damn your stupidity.

Thus it comes down to what I can expect to play against, and whether I will hate myself for only taking 2 Posse when I get dropped against Trolls 3 rounds in a row.

For Barnabas and Maelok, I play 3 full Posses by default. If Gator beasts hit harder/more accurately than a full unit of Gators, this probably wouldn't be the case, since both can do pretty good things for Gator beasts - not as much as Rask of course, but a lot nevertheless. But as things stand, I have found that playing three Posse with these two is much preferable to taking two (I played two Posse with them for almost a year before getting a third).

Decision 3 – Rask solos

In any case, I have 4pts left over in the Rask list (5pts if you discount the Gobbers). These are going to be used for solos.... a sort of "support" allocation, one might say.

I've given myself 3 options here:

1. Two Croak Hunters - these guys are mediocre as hell, but when they are one of your only ranged attacks, you learn to value their input. They can hold zones about as well as the other two options, they can unblock Gators, they are two independent activations and are really sweet at countercharging.
2. Totem Hunter + Feralgeist - the Totem Hunter is a lot like a Croak Hunter on steroids but without a gun. His stats and mobility are almost better than a Croak in every way, but he relies entirely on proccing Sprint to unblock Gators. This has led to bad things in my life. But he can also sometimes break games open if used patiently, and does work at all stages of the game. Finally, he is also a character so putting him in this list means he isn't in my other lists, and I do love him vs Circle to snipe out Shifting Stones.
   Feralgeists are 1pt zone holders/contesters 99% of the time, and sometimes take over beasts to annoy people (primarily me).
3. Croctor + Feralgeist - This would almost be purely for the Harbinger matchup alone, because the stuff I drop Rask against doesn't usually care about Undead and Tough on Gators is mostly a non-issue.

 

Decision 4 - Barnabas asks "Wrastler or Horror"?

Another tricky question revolving entirely around one beast selection:

• On one side, the Wrastler is SPD 5, reasonably tanky (especially with Spiny Growth), and is P+S 17. He can do respectable, although not great damage. He also keeps the 'Rise Missile' threat alive, which is the one thing people seem to know about Gators. Being able to independently knock heavy targets down following a charge is also pretty neat. His weaknesses are lack of reach and an extra point cost relative to the Horror.
• On the other, the Swamp Horror has really good protection vs shooting, can do work against infantry, has built-in reach, can give reach to other things (mainly Barnabas or some random Gatorman), benefits a LOT from Warpath since it is slow, and also costs 1 less point than a Wrastler, allowing me to level the Feralgeist up to a Croak Hunter for that extra ranged attack. Its weaknesses are being squishy as balls in melee, and being 1 less POW and 2 less STR than a Wrastler.

Decision 5 - Maelok's last 9 pts.

Unfortunately Posse are (only) FA:3 in Blindwater. Sad face. That means I have to take other things.

• WE + Snapjaw - Usually in a Maelok list, you want to have Wrong Eye around to put up another 2 Spiny Growths a turn. And you also get a sweet heavy to go with it. However, at 42pts, that's not really a luxury we have. But you still get a pretty good heavy and solo with solid animi.
• Support solo staff: TH + Thrullg + Pendrake + Feralgeist - This gives a little more flexibility to the list. Thrullgs are good against Cryx, the Totem Hunter can also be super scary with incorporeal charges followed by a Sprint away and 15 Gators in your grill, Pendrake makes Gators much better vs beasts (so they can Dirge or Pathfinder on the charge if needed), and the Feralgeist gives you specific zone control potential. But, you don't have a heavy hitter outside Malediction (which you really don't want to be using as a core ARM crack strategy).

So there you have it - how faceroll easy it is to chose Gator lists, why I don't have to worry about list chicken because all my lists are the same and why I am so bad at making lists for other factions.

What did lists did I go for in the end? Stay tuned for exciting revelations in March (after lists have been submitted to TO)!!

The Mk2.5 Balancing drama

There have been a lot of threads recently (last couple of months) about the desire for Mk 3 or Mk 2.5 or some kind of balancing errata so that the meta game can get shaken up a bit and we can maybe play without the absolute certainty that your Cryx opponent will be packing a list with Tartarus and a shitload of Banes, and your Cygnar opponent won't have a Haley list with Stormwall or whatever for a couple of months before the new superpowers settle on their thrones high above and the cycle beings anew. All we know is that Minions will remain the worst faction in the game.

So I decided to think out loud (in written form) and put together a little article about what changes I would put forward for Blindwater under such an update patch. Hopefully this at worst will give people a perspective of how I play Gators and what the meta around here is like. Here are the fruits of my mental labour.

A little theory to kick things off....

There are a few ways to balance things in games.

• Numbers change - you can make something relatively better or worse in some specific regard by increasing or decreasing a particular stat.

This is the most common type of change in a game 'patch'. Numbers (or stats) represent relative things in an absolute way so that we can compare to other similar things in the system. The more stats you have, the more there is to tweak (and also more complicated and detailed gameplay).
For example, there is a sizable degree of difference between MAT 5 (Titan Sentry), MAT 6 (Assault Kommando), MAT 7 (Doom Reaver) and MAT 9 (Vilmon). In relative/descriptive terms, we can say the Sentry is 'competent' in melee combat, the AK is 'trained', the Doom Reaver is 'highly skilled' and Vilmon is 'one of the best in the entire world'. We can encapsulate these differences by assigning those numbers to their MAT, and this will play out in the game via the exciting realm of dice and probability. Thus changing a number makes something better or worse in that regard.

Points Cost is probably the single most important stat because it determines the relative total value of any given model to another potential option. Points are one of the most important resources in Warmachine, and changing the PC of a model (especially in the lower 1-5pt bracket) can make a huge difference to the power of a model.

• Mechanics change - changing one mechanic on a model can change its effectiveness.

Take for example the change to Side Step so that the 2" move no longer triggered upon hitting a friendly model. This reduced the effectiveness of the eMakeda Molik Karn Bullet list slightly so that it became easier for the opponent to not get killed bottom of two.
Another example of this would be the multiple changes to Lich2's feat, from changing the returned models from 'Incorporeal' to 'Ghostly', or changing valid feat targets from 'warrior models' to 'grunts'. The feat does essentially the same thing as it did before - bringing back a bunch of ethereal banes to kill half your army - but certain mechanics of the ability were changed to reduce its power.

• Redesign - some models do not work on the table as intended, or have a role or purpose already fulfilled by a competitive option.

For example, nobody plays Drudges in a competitive setting because Mechanithralls do a very similar thing (potentially hard hitting tarpit) at a much lower cost, greater efficiency and without the weakness of being tied to its Officer to function. Therefore Drudges would need more than just a mechanics change (they don't have many to begin with) or a simple stats change (McThralls are still better at 3/5 PC) but something a bit more involved.
I'd also put Calaban as a candidate for redesign, as anyone who has read pretty much any article on here knows how I feel about playing him, as well as his validity in a competitive setting post-Rask.


Finally, a disclaimer - balance is in the eye of the beholder, much like power. Everything takes place within a complicated interconnected system where changing one small thing can have trigger a chain of events further down the line. Some people have a good sense for this type of thing, while the average player in a game does not. This is why balance decisions are best when they occur as the result of careful statistical analysis and systemic thinking combined with consensus-based discussions of subjective perspectives and values.

In my opinion, Privateer Press has a mixed record on game balancing in Mk2. I like how they have approached Lich2 nerfs with gradual tweaking rather than huge sweeping nerfs (as game companies like Blizzard are wont to do) and have done a pretty good job of quickly fixing core mechanic issues that have popped up like the Shield Guard, headlocks from behind, Cover LoS, Sloan's feat, Backswing, etc. but have been almost entirely non-committal on rebalancing the game in terms of power levels or fixing units that are just plain unattractive (with occasional exceptions like Asphyxious, the Blood Hag or more recently Taryn).

I think there is a lot to gain if a large balance errata were released. It would stimulate the metagame for the better part of 6 months to a year (far more than a handful of new releases), thus getting current players more excited about the game and buying new stuff. There is always the issue that your netdecked list won't be playable anymore exactly as is, or that your beloved OP models won't be as broken anymore, but as long as they don't nerf anything into the ground or make really dramatic changes to models that people currently use regularly, then everyone wins.


On the Gatormans!

---------------------------------------------

Warlocks

Our warlocks are pretty strong on the whole. Rask is probably a little on the powerful side, and Calaban is a little on the never-gets-played-because-he-is-annoying-to-use-and-pretty-much-inferior-to-Rask-in-every-way side.

Bloody Barnabas

+ 1 POW on Bone Cleaver
This just adds a little more warjack/warbeast killing power to Barnabas himself. Too often I charge an average heavy like an Ironclad, Harrower, Banshee, Scythean etc. and fall short of killing it by a few boxes despite charging and spending all my fury. It's a bit of a downer for a Gatorman tank, and I think this change will make a noticeable difference in smoothing out his crippling difficulty with ARM 20+.
I think Blood-Quenched would be an amazing rule on eBarnabas :)
 

Maelok, the Dreadbound

No change. 
I would perhaps make Malediction 'target model in this model's battlegroup' rather than 'RNG: Self', but that would probably make him a bit too strong since it's like giving Gators +2 MAT and POW vs any given large target, thereby almost removing the need to take heavy warbeasts and giving a lot more power to the Maelok + 3 Snappers list (it'd be like Dark Shroud on crack).

I love this artwork.

Rask

-1 WB point.  
He is obviously better than the other Gator warlocks. 1 less WB points usually means you don't get those Swamp Gobbers to give him concealment or a Feralgeist to annoyingly contest zones. I considered also removing his Energy Siphon attack since it's just icing on the cake that can potentially win games for no real reason, but it's not really a huge deal. As long as Gators remain super weak in ranged combat, Rask will refrain from being broken as balls and just remain really strong.
 

Calaban, the Grave Walker

Heavy redesign. 
Rask has taken this guy's previous niche of ARM cracking and just does it way more efficiently and safely. I would like a redesign to emphasize his manipulative voodoo asshole persona, focusing on denial, spell assassination and debuffs. Think of spells like Bad Blood, Breath Stealer and Shadowmancer, or douchy abilities like Harrow (pMorv) and Talion (pVayl). I like the idea of Shadowmancer a lot more than Parasite + Occultation since it gives you an incentive to NOT take 3 full Posse at 50pts, as they will get shot up. Gameplay wise, he could also be designed to do well vs hard-hitting infantry swarms so that Gators can have a 50/50 against it.

Either way he goes, his arc node mechanic (if kept) needs to be less clunky, like straight-up making Spell Martyr equivalent models that can activate that turn (which will only be really strong on his feat turn), or anything I've written on at length previously.

Warbeasts

Blindwater warbeasts are very average. They don't have great stats, are a little pricey, but do come with some neato abilities make all the difference in using them.

Blackhide Wrastler

Change Snacking so that the RFP effect is not conditional upon the heal effect.
I just think it's really annoying and janky to try and get a point of damage on your beast so that you can RFP if you want to. Just have it RFP all the time as the thing gets eaten or ripped up good. This would be a 'buff' to Dire Trolls too... and Shredders (although Shredders should probably lose Snacking altogether).
+1 POW on the claws would be nice but not necessary. The Wrastler isn't great in the scheme of things but does his job well enough if you know how to use him.

Ironback Spitter

New animus.
The Spitter sucks pretty bad in melee, is slow and not particularly hard to kill for something covered almost entirely in a hard shell. Fine, because it has a sweet AoE gun and RAT 5 with 4 fury. That alone is almost worth the admission. However, in well over 100 games with Blindwater, I have never cast the Ornery animus. It is, for all intents and purposes, a total waste of card space for the Spitter.
I assume Ornery is supposed to symbolize the tendency of snapper turtles to ferociously bite down on things in self-defense (since they are too big to fully retreat into their shell), but in gameplay it fails.

I think Locker (from the Titan Sentry) would be an adequate replacement.  Counterblast is the next most logical option since it is Ornery but better, however that animus is also pretty crap.
Or allow it to Stoneform as an animus. That would be sweet and probably not too strong on any caster all things considered (since it doesn't stack with Spiny Growth). Maelok could be ARM 23 for a turn at worse.

Swamp Horror

No change.
They are neat because they have lots of attack and don't die to shooting (but die to everything else). I wish this had been the Gargantuan though, basically the same thing with bigger numbers and an automatic crit.

Bull Snapper

No change. 
They are squishy support beasts that can missile out and kill a thing sometimes. Basically the same deal as a Shredder or Gorax, just more Gatory.

Boneswarm

Redesign.
This thing sucks. I have seen it be decent in Midas' tier list when it starts with 3 bone tokens because it is then quite tanky at DEF 13 ARM 18 (just like a dirged Gator! For twice the cost!), so you park it on a flag somewhere and it kills 1-2 models a turn, healing itself and such. Or it does some decent damage to an enemy heavy at POW 15 and then lives long enough to be annoying. Decent - not great. Basically it needs a sense of purpose which it does not currently have.

Units

We have three units, one of which won't be released until 2017. Gatormans are one of the best units in the Hordes (almost said 'the game'... then remembered Warmachine units) and are the backbone of Blindwater and will probably remain so for as long as the Pact exists.

Gatorman Posse

No change.
Prior to the release of the Warspear and Skinwalker UAs, I'd have said that they needed something to make them less attractive to other factions, but now I don't see Legion or Circle players use Gatormans all that much... or at all. They are still super good but still die rather handily if you know how to do it and have the tools (weapon masters, smart use of heavies, control, etc.).

Bog Trog Ambushers

No change. 
They are kind of costly for their poor base stats really but are a finesse unit with quite a few special rules.

Gatorman Bokor and Swamp Shamblers

Change their status to 'released'. 
Amazing game-changing buff. I still think they will relatively be much better outside Blindwater than within it, unlike the two above units.

Swamp Gobbers

No change. 
1pt for a cloud seems ok, especially considering they do nothing else and die to incidental blast damage.

Solos

We have two distinct Gatorman solos, the Croaks and Croctor, and then have a couple of more general Minion solos to go with the legendary Wrong Eye.

Gatorman Witch Doctor

No change.
I am a little bummed that these guys cost 3pts in general but only 2pts in Maelok's tier list, where they are precisely at their most powerful for Gators, which signifies a Minion tax. However I can suck it up since they are pretty good anyways.

Totem Hunter

No change. 
No surprise.

Croak Hunter

Gain + 1 DEF, lose Vitriol
Ah Croaks.... I have never even seen them played outside Blindwater since they are so mediocre. I have barely seen them played within Blindwater since they are so mediocre. They have done ok for me purely because they allow me to clear single-models here and there without activating a whole unit of Gators or a beast.
My first thought was that Jump will allow them to do this even better. Plus it is incredily froggy. The only issue is that they basically become crappy Totem Hunters for 1pt less, and we don't really want that... or do we.....?
Secondary thought was to make them blow up when they die like Bloat Thralls, because that'd be hilarious. But then they would just run/jam and kill heaps of infantry for nothing and then I realized this would be way too faceroll / Cryxian.
Tertiary thought was to just buff their DEF by 1 so they are less prone to death after they fail to hit something with their spears, and just went with that.
I just took Vitriol off the card because it does nothing and it's just some fluffy ability for fluffers.

Viktor Pendrake

Bow becomes Magical.
This is the most minor change ever and is only a real deal for Blindwater since we are starved for magic attacks. Makes sense though, no? That bow has to be lucky for a reason (and that reason is MAGIC).

Wrong Eye + Snapjaw

No change. 
These guys are great and don't really bust anything in the game outside putting Spiny Growth on Galleon. You could make them 2-3pts more and that wouldn't change though - a hard skew is a hard skew and I am 99% sure this is just something that wasn't picked up in playtesting. Would need a subtype change perhaps, or a change with how lesser warlocks work.

Total changes:

• Barnabas - Increase POW of melee weapon 'Bone Cleaver' from '5' to '6'. (or just give him Dark Shroud, that's probably better :P )
• Rask - Reduce WB points from '+6' to '+5'.
• Calaban - redesign.
• Wrastler - replace the text of Snacking with: 'When this model boxes a living model with a melee attack, the boxed model is removed from play and this model can heal d3 damage points'.
• Spitter - replace 'Ornery' animus with something I will cast at least once in 100 games. Or not.
• Boneswarm - redesign.
• Pendrake - add weapon quality: 'magical weapon' to ranged weapon 'Lucky Bow'.
• Croak Hunter - Increase DEF stat from '13' to '14'. Remove rule 'Vitriol'.

All in all, very small balance changes since I feel Blindwater is in a good place other than the lack of options leading to really bad matchups vs things like weapon master swarms (need some guns/scathers/A2A-type infantry clear) and incorporeal spam (magical weapons).
I would have like to have more nerfs to give the impression that I can have a balanced mindset about things, but to be honest I only view Rask and Gatormans on the really high part of the curve.... this is still Minions we're talking about!

The redesign are for two models I never use because other models within the same faction do similar things in much more effective and well-designed ways. For a thought exercise, Boneswarms at 3pts are still much less appealing than Snappers, and Calaban at +7WB points is still as irritating as groin chaffing and worse than Rask at everything except throwing out POW 12 nukes (mostly because Rask has no offensive spells). This indicates to me that the models just don't really work so need some deeper changes. Some may disagree of course.


In the greater scheme of the game, I think that several models could use small-tweaks in cost or ability use in order to level out power inequalities or obstacles to player engagement. Little changes like:

• Making eMorvahna's rerolls in her CMD rather than CTRL to force her to play a bit more forward, or at least consider order of activations a bit more.
• Smoothing out uber-crippling feats that literally stop you playing the game, like pDenny (ie. remove the -2 FOC and 'no running') or eHaley's.
• Making Assault Kommandos cheaper so they might have a place as meat shields with Strakhov and Vlads.
• Reducing the amount of tough rolls in an average game, or changing the mechanic if they want to keep it at that scale so it doesn't feel like I'm playing 40k.
• Changing Excarnate to basically be Revive attached to a POW 13 nuke - place the model within 3" of its unit rather than the caster and in this model's CTRL (nerf Lich, buff Scaverous = everyone wins).

Others, like Drudges, need some serious redesign. I think they have the data and expertise to do such a 'patch' justice (much more than I ever could anyway), and besides it'd probably only impact 5-10% of the models currently out.

Alas, we will wait and see what happens. I know it's way cheaper for me to play Minions when I know Pigs are really bad and don't bring anything better to the table so there's no reason to buy a Pig list other than lolz :) I will keep playing the same lists for another year or three if need be.

Learning to swim - a guide for new players

If you intend to play Blindwater as a faction, my first piece of advice would be "run for you life, and don't look back". Minions are the weakest faction in the game. You've heard it plenty of times before, and it won't always be the case, but playing Gators is like strapping a rabid hungry monkey to your leg and wondering why you're having trouble walking and losing so much blood. If you intend to carry on, however....

EDIT 08/2015 - Blindwater has received some really good releases since this guide was first written - Jaga Jaga, the Sacral Vault and Croak Raiders, all of which are excellent and cover Blindwater's bad matchup vs weapon master infantry swarm and provide a decent ranged game. Gators still lack a few things but in my opinion are about middle of the pack in terms of competitiveness thanks to its strong warlocks and very strong individual pieces.

"Faction" Summary

In the style of the threads on PP beginner forums:

Blindwater Melee: Gatormans excel at eating things, which is difficult to do at a distance. The backbone of any good Blindwater list is the Gatorman Posse, who are arguably the best medium-based infantry in the game. Durable, hard-hitting, and tactically adaptable, Gatorman Posse are an elite melee force to be reckoned with. Like the Posse, most models in the faction boast two or more base attacks which helps them make up for their lower table numbers.

Blindwater Ranged: Being primarily a melee faction, ranged has historically been the weakest point of the faction. But this has changed a lot with the introduction of Croak Raiders, one of the best ranged units in the game, and the Sacral Vault, which provides accurate shooting on top of its support capabilities. The Spitter warbeast also boasts a great boostable gun..

Blindwater Magic: The general theme here is that of voodoo, shady swamps and blood magic. This translates into excellent resilience for both our warlocks and their army, while also leeching life force (both enemy and friendly) to bolster their units or impede the opponent in some way. Blindwater forces are also often accompanied to battle by Witch Doctors who use sacrificial magic to manipulate the veil between life and death.

Blindwater Warlocks: Blindwater's warlocks are on the whole much more powerful than the average warlock and carry the faction on their backs in order to make up for lower list synergies. The general theme of our warlocks is durability and a good mix between troop buffing and battlegroup spells, with a strategic theme of denying enemy ranged combat or excelling in a grindy attrition fight.

Blindwater Warbeasts: Blindwater's beasts are based around the theme of the swamp - amphibious creatures who like it rough and dirty, such as monstrous oversized alligators, turtles and octopuses. Although rather unimpressive in terms of their combat stats, our beasts generally have great animi (Rise, Spiny Growth, Elasticity, Submerge) bring a lot of tactical utility with their myriad of combat abilities and multiple open fists.

General Advice

This is some general advice for any new players to Warmachine, and for veteran players wishing to pick up another faction:

1. Start small, build up. I see a lot of complete noobcakes wanting to rush straight to 35 or 50pts so they can "play proper games". Maybe this is a holdover from WHFB and 40k, where you had to invest a couple of hundred bucks off the bat to get to 500pts to play bare minimum games, but Warmahordes thankfully doesn't work that way. Although games are much better around 50pts, you can still have a meaningful and challenging game at 15/25pts using only battlegroups. That's the beauty of the system, it scales very well.

Thus I recommend starting at 15pts, and building up to 25pts, 35pts and 50pts over a period of at least a month but more likely 4-5 months (depending on how much free time you have). This gives new players time to get familiar with core mechanics like focus/fury, power attacks, activation order and gloating, and gives experienced players time to adjust to their new faction's intricacies and feel out where they would like to expand.

2. Don't over analyze - go with your gut.
In my experience, and in my observation of other players, too much rationalization and agonizing over the 'right' faction and caster will just lead to more pseudo-rationalism and frustration down the line. You are better off choosing a faction or caster that you think is cool, playing a few proxy or Vassal games with it, and sticking with that choice if it feels right. The best faction decisions I've made have come about this way (eButcher + Blindwater).

Having said that, you also have to accept that realities do not usually match expectations, hence the importance of trial.
If I chose my faction by theme alone, I would be playing Khador without a doubt - wolves, (slavic) women, winter and war. Also bears. That is my inner calling, as I identify Central Europe as my spiritual homeland. Also axes and melee are way more awesome than guns, and tanks are better than DPS.
However, that is not actually how Khador plays. Khador probably would not take any jacks at all if it weren't for warjack points, Khador's focus mechanic is boring (except with Butcher2), and you spam small-based infantry. That is not how I like to play Warmahordes.
Another example, my second faction in Mk1 was Protectorate of Menoth, purely because I really liked Kreoss2 and the Testament of Menoth in the fluff and art. Unfortunately, both their playstyles in Mk2 are about as exciting as watching a dog lick its balls for an hour. I got frustrated for a few months, having spent quite a bit of time and money on the faction before deciding to move on (1).

If you play Blindwater for a while and realize playing an underpowered grindy faction with almost no releases each release cycle is not for you, cut your losses and play something else.

3. Play some trial games.
The best way to assess your decision is to put it in play on the table. I wouldn't recommend any experienced players to buy into a new faction without having played a few games on the table to see how you like the playstyle. Proxy at will.

4. Read and re-read your special rules, then put them into practice.
Once you've got your army assembled, read the cards over and over. Play some games and try out special abilities, even if it's not the most tactically brilliant choice at the time. Every turn is an opportunity to learn. The best way to remember anything is to put it into practice. I have an informed opinion of Boneswarm being really bad since it has failed me on so many vivid occasions. I would not have this knowledge and total lack of respect for its rules had I not played it several times! Likewise, I used to hate on Croak Hunters until I started using them as backline counter-chargers and lane clearers, now I think they are a worthwhile addition to almost any list that can spare the points.

5. Paint your models.
I have a personal guideline that I don't buy any new models unless I've painted everything I already own. This not only leads to a more personal and pretty collection, but will also keep your costs down and keep your purchases focused!

Where do we start?

At the time of writing, we have five warlocks: Barnabas, Calaban, Maelok, Jaga-Jaga and Rask.

I would recommend that you initially avoid Calaban at all costs, since I think he is as well designed as the highway system in Auckland combined with a healthy dose of mind-altering substances, and will probably just serve to frustrate you with his Skornergy. But then again, if he sets your heart aflutter, go for it.
Maelok is quite straight forward and effective but works much better with multiple Posses than beasts (ie. higher point levels). Rask and Jaga-Jaga would both be good at low points levels though - Rask is a very solid caster and probably the most powerful in faction although I would not recommend for low points learning games as he can just hard win a lot of matchups (easy wins are not the best learning experience). Jaga-Jaga is a more passive, support-oriented warlock and would also work well at low points games, despite her feat not doing anything if no infantry is present.

Barnabas would be my pick for your first caster. He is very tough, has a great spell list for low points games, and his feat can be used for the simple and effective pop 'n' drop strategy (feat, KD enemy caster. KD stuff screening caster, shoot/spell DEF 5 caster to death). Barnabas' main weakness (at all levels) is his inability to crack high ARM, but at lower points games you are unlikely to see Gargossals and being unable to kill high ARM models will force you to use your Swamp Pits and power attacks, hence learning more.

To start with, you want to get a solid core of warbeasts:

15 pts

• Warlock (+6)
• Blackhide Wrastler (9)
• Ironback Spitter (8)
• Bull Snapper (3)
• +1 pt

You can fill the last point with a Feralgeist or Swamp Gobbers, both models you will find very useful later on, or just play a point short if you wish to play Mangled Metal/Tooth and Claw games.

This list provides you with a solid core to build on for any warlock you might choose to play in the future, and a good selection of animi.You can read more about the specific models by clicking on the tactica link to your right.

Expanding your force

15 -> 25pts:

1. One full Gatorman Posse (9pts)
2. Feralgeist or Swamp Gobbers (whatever you didn't take in your 15pts list)

Gatorman Posse are AMAZING and are the backbone of the Blindwater Congregation. A full unit is a must if you intend to play Blindwater, and you will take at least one in pretty much every list (2).

25-> 35pts:

This is where it gets interesting!

• If you want to play Maelok, Barnabas or Jaga-Jaga:

1. A second full Posse unit (9pts)
2. Replacing the Swamp Gobbers+Feralgeist with a Witch Doctor or Totem Hunter (-2, +3 = 1pt)

Both Maelok and Barnabas actively make Posse better. Maelok wants them to grind and Revive, Barnabas buffs them with Iron Flesh and Swamp Pits. Jaga-Jaga on the other hand allows Posses to excel by eliminating enemy buffs and terrain considerations. The Witch Doctor is good choice for troop support and utility, the Totem Hunter is a great solo assassin and board controller but takes a little skill to use effectively.

• If you want to play Calaban:

1. Swamp Horror (8pts) OR Max Croak Raiders (8pts)
2. Replacing either the Swamp Gobbers and Feralgeist with a 3pt solo (Witch Doctor is a good choice, as is the Totem Hunter). (-1 + 3 = 2pts)

Calaban doesn't get as much from a second Posse as his fellow Gator warlocks in my experience. He does make the Swamp Horror into a MAT 8 beast however, and can afford to push beasts a little harder with his Fury of 7.

• If you want to play Rask:

1. A second full Posse and sub in 2pts for a Totem Hunter,  OR
2. Swamp Shamblers (6pts), Totem Hunter (3pts), and switch out Feralgeist/Gobbers for a Croak Hunter. (1pt)

Rask can do amazing thing for Gatormans, usually giving them a devastating alpha-strike. However, Swamp Shamblers give you a little attrition which Rask otherwise lacks and also provides him with bodies for his Call to Sacrifice ability, making him ridiculously hard to assassinate. They suck in melee but the Bokor can do some serious damage to a heavy target given enough Shamblers to feed him. Bog Trog Ambushers are also decent as Sacrifice fodder, because with Fury they are very legit counter-chargers late game.

35 -> 50pts

By now you should have a good feel for the faction and a good chunk of games under your belt, so will know what you want to add in to cover your weaknesses or enhance your strengths. Here are some suggestions, in no particular order:

- Wrong Eye + Snapjaw: This pair are a complete package. Highly independent, good utility (especially against Hordes), hard hitting, very survivable. A good choice with any caster.
- Another Gatorman Posse: Three full Posses at 50pts might seem excessive, but they really are that good. I will almost always run Maelok with 3 Posses at 50pts, and will usually take 3 with Barnabas as well since neither of them are great ARM crackers, so you might as well maximize your advantage.
- Bog Trog Ambushers: these little guys are great at dealing with support staff or providing extra threat vectors since we lack ranged power. I don't usually take them below 50pts, but at 50 they shine.
- Another Snapper and some 3pt solos: Snappers are awesome, and solos are useful. The Thrullg comes into serious consideration here as well.
- Add in some beasts: Rask absolutely loves Swamp Horrors for example - I prefer to run him with a Wrastler, a Swamp Horror and WE+Snapjaw at 50pts. Jaga-Jaga and Barnabas might also appreciate another Spitter instead of a Wrastler, depending on your matchups.
- An army of frogs: goes great with your bask of crocodiles. Croak Hunters are decidedly mediocre combat solos, but in pairs and threes they can almost pull their weight.
- Sacral Vault: This thing is ridiculously good. Get one.
- Croak Raiders: One of the few signs of power creep in the game, these guys are just better than they should be. They don't directly synergize that well with Blindwater stuff, but they do benefit from our buffs and feats!

And that's that!

Those are my recommendations for anyone intending to start playing Gatormans - if you have any criticisms, suggestions, or wish to correct my grammar and/or stylisms, feel free to leave a comment below, or send me a PM on the Privateer boards (Yertle4).

Updated Oct 2014 - Sacral Vault and Jaga-Jaga notes.

(1) I moved on to Skorne near the end days of Mk1, since I liked the challenge of not having pathfinder anywhere, and playing badass melee armies. Then Metamorphosis came out and Skorne got ridiculous amounts of pathfinder, along with one of the most broken warlocks ever made, then Mk2 playtest came out and flipped the faction on its head. I was out.
(2) Unless you are playing the Rask tier for some drunken fun. Maelok and Barnabas usually take 3 Posse.

Bull Snapper - Amazingly sweet, or just really good?

Ah, the Bull Snapper. He is all man. Gatorman. Well, masculine at least. Let's say that he has a mean pair and makes all the females swoon. So what is it that about this light warbeast that makes him so delectably good?

Overview

The Snapper is a 3pt light warbeast. That's cheap. His stats are pretty average for a light beast, with 16 damage boxes and a single non-reach P+S 12 attack. Nothing really impressive there.

He has a few neat rules:

• Blood Thirst - +2" when charging living things. Hungry gator is hungry.
• Man-Eater - Eats men. And women. In the literal sense. Also charges living warrior models for free (which are usually men or man-shaped/scented).
• Torpid - After killing a living thing, he immediately goes to sleep and you can remove a fury from him.
• Also, amphibious. Of course.

 

Survivability

So... average DEF, as much ARM as a Bog Trog, and 16 boxes. You'd think this guy would die to a stiff breeze and/or Reckoner shot. And he probably will, given the chance. However, because of his abilities and animus (see 'Buff Bot' below) this guy very, very rarely dies in a game. In a losing game, he will probably amongst my last few models to die. Distance is the greatest defense, as they say.

Damage

Again, not remarkable on the surface. Single non-reach P+S12 bite attack. He does have sustained attack though, which helps make up for his low MAT. As mentioned he can be quite quick too, and fury efficient at killing warrior models.

Utility

This is why you take this little guy: animus - Spiny Growth.  Gators, being an attrition-oriented army, benefit hugely from this ARM buff animus by placing it on your warlock, beasts, or key trooper models. 3pts is worth it for this animus alone.
The neat thing about having this in Hordes is that your caster can put it on another beast, and your Snapper on your caster - and you've effectively spent nothing in terms of resources.

Tactica

Buff Bot

Early game, the Snapper is best staying back within a few inches of your warlock and heavy beasts, and just put Spiny Growth on something every turn. This deters away from ranged assassination attempts on your caster, or protects your bests from the occasional shots. Simple. If that's all this guy does all game, every game along with providing Spiny Growth to your caster, he's already paid for himself (a bit like a Journeyman).

Pretty good non-standard caster uses for Spiny Growth:

• Barnabas triggering Bloon Boon on his axe after killing something - sometimes you don't want to move Iron Flesh, and another Swamp Pit won't do much good. Might as well put a Spiny Growth on Barnabas or elsewhere.
• Sometimes you will get pretty high amounts of fury under Calaban's feat, such that it would seriously hamper your ability to leach fury off your beasts next turn. Why not burn that extra fury as it comes in by casting 2-4 Spiny Growths?
• Wrastler + Spiny Growth + Death Pact + Maelok's feat = ARM 25 = Devastator. Just don't get shot by eEyriss, or try this against Cryx.

Solo-killing Missile

As mentioned, the animus alone makes this guy worth his 3pts. His extra utility as a speedy Gonzales solo-killing machine is what really makes the little guy shine.

Let's say you are playing an opponent who has taken one of those FU stealth power solos like Eyriss, Gorman, or Mage Hunter Assassin. And this douchebag solo is moving in on your flank about to totally take a dump over your carefully laid plans. Up steps the Snapper:

Charge range: 6" base + 3" charge + 2" Blood Thirst + 0.5" melee = 11.5" threat, with a potential extra 1.5" from Elasticity.

Your Snapper is now in melee with their solo and has spent no fury on account of Man Eater. You boost your charge attack:

• If you miss, you have another boosted shot to hit (2 fury). 
• If you hit, and don't kill, you've got another P+S 12 damage roll or two thanks to Sustained Attack.
• You can even cast Spiny Growth on something before charging if you're confident of killing your target with the charge attack.
• Finally, after killing the solo, the Snapper removes a fury and his activation ends, making him a viable transfer target if you need one.

5 gold stars. Very well designed model, everything just flows smoothly and allows good decision making to make the difference.

Sexy Beast

Check it his pose:

And he knows it.

Judges say: 10/10

Slam Bot

He is a light warbeast. Light warbeasts all pull off a game winning slam at some point in their career. It might not be today or tomorrow, but someday.

Conclusion

The Bull Snapper is the closest thing to auto-include in a Blindwater list, after at least one Gatorman Posse.

 Fillet'o Fish |-------------------------------------------------X----| Baklava

The Snapper - so good, it makes the Galleon even better, and the Boneswarm seem even crappier.