The path to the Ides of March

What will probably be New Zealand's largest Warmachine tournament ever will take place in less than two weeks (1). This will be my first "proper" tournament in a long time, so the best I hope to do is place in the top half of the field and meet some nice people who share my amusement at Searforge and the Mountain King.

Ides of March is a 42pt (2), 2 list, character restricted, 2x 1 hour deathclock, 7 round, 7 scenario, Killbox artifice, fully-painted tournament.

Since I am such a non-player playing a non-faction, I think I am at liberty to discuss my list choices without fear that someone will try to netdeck against them. Because that would just be stupid, and the best way to netdeck against Gators/Minions is to play something actually good.

List 1

Rask 
* Blackhide Wrastler
* Swamp Horror
* Bull Snapper

Bog Trog Ambushers (Leader and 5 Grunts)
Gatormen Posse (Leader and 4 Grunts)
Gatormen Posse (Leader and 4 Grunts)
Swamp Gobber Bellows Crew (Leader and 1 Grunt)

Feralgeist
Totem Hunter 

One of the lists will of course be Rask. There are a few reasons for this:

- He is freaking awesome.
- He is by far our best matchup vs Gargossals, Protectorate and Skorne.
- He is a good all-rounder with a lot of answers (upkeep removal, Boundless Charge, Fury, Paralysis) and a lot of problems (Inhospitable Ground, Feat, Admonition, Call to Sac Trogs).
- Most people won't really be familiar with him as he has only been out for a few weeks.

I haven't tested this list as such, and I probably won't. It seems good, and is very similar to stuff I've been using with Rask at other point levels. The one actual decision I had to make was whether to bring a Snapper or a Witch Doctor. This wasn't a hard decision in the end, but I considered that tough Gators might give a little boost in this list's otherwise average attrition potential.

However, despite Rask's clear superiority on the power scale, he still has a good number of weaknesses. Some of these are faction-wide, while others are somewhat covered by other warlocks - it's a good thing we have the option to take two lists!

Terry Crews

List 2

Bloody Barnabas
* Bull Snapper
* Blackhide Wrastler
* Ironback Spitter

Gatormen Posse (Leader and 4 Grunts)
Gatormen Posse (Leader and 4 Grunts) 

Feralgeist 

Wrong Eye + Snapjaw

In my opinion, Barnabas is still a really solid all-round tournament caster and deserves the second list spot. However, he still does have Maelok to contend with, and Maelok is not to be trifled with.

What the Barnabas list has that the Rask list does not is more favourable matchups against high DEF infantry (on account of his feat), shooting armies (on account of Swamp Pits), and better attrition and scenario potential (on account of him being a tough cookie, Iron Flesh, and a list full of high ARM models). Furthermore, he brings a Spitter, which as Blindwater's only decent ranged attack, can be amazing at sniping out key UAs and support models.

I considered switching out Wrong Eye and Snapjaw for Bog Trogs, Gobbers and a Witch Doctor. The discussion (with myself) basically went like this:

JS: This is a tough predicament....
JS: Indeed... indeed. So, what does Wrong Eye actually bring to the table, compared to the Trogs and Doctor?
JS: Mmmmm... I should analyze this ... WITH SCIENCE:

Option 1: WE + Snapjaw

Damage: 
1x PS 17, 1x Crit KD Reach PS 14, with 4 fury, Bloodthirst, ManEater.
1x PS 13, 1x Reach PS 12, with 4 fury.
Survival: 
ARM 18 and a 27ish boxes 
ARM 17 and 8 boxes, transfers
Submerge
Utility:
2 scenario holding pieces
RFP
Influence, Voodoo Doll

Option 2: Trogs, Gobbers, Croctor

Damage:
6x PS 11 attacks, with powerful charge, CMA
1x PS 12, 1x PS 11 (magical)
2x PS 5 weapons? (legit!)
Survival:
6 dudes with victim stats, but Camouflage
2 dudes with ARM 11
ARM 16, 8 boxes
Utility:
Effectively 1 scenario holder piece (the Trog unit, as the support stays back)
Ambush
Crap out large clouds
Zombify, Sac Strike, Dominate Undead

Overall:
Damage - WE + S by a large margin.
Survival - WE + S by a medium margin.
Utility - WE + S by a small margin.

WE+S win out bigtime on damage and survival, and probably come out a little ahead on utility when you consider the list as a whole: Barnabas doesn't need to hide in clouds when he can just swim in a Swamp Pit, and the Rask list is far stronger against lists that bring a lot of support pieces (PoM, Skorne, Trolls). On the whole, WE +S win by a sizable margin.

This analytical approach to building lists is of course back by solid play experience that has shown me that WE+S are pretty damn good with Barnabas and in scenario play. It is also backed by a postgraduate course on policy analysis and evaluation techniques that makes me think this way about any given problem with multiple finite alternatives.

List 3

Maelok, the Dreadbound
* Bull Snapper
* Blackhide Wrastler
* Swamp Horror 

Gatormen Posse (Leader and 4 Grunts)
Gatormen Posse (Leader and 4 Grunts) 

Feralgeist
Gatorman Witch Doctor
Gatorman Witch Doctor
Thrullg

This is the other list I am considering. It is a bit of a skew list, which asks "can you deal with 10 high-ARM, tough, undead Gators, which keep coming back and can pretty much charge anything they want for a turn?". If the answer is "yep, I have weapon masters/can rfp/have lots of ARM on my caster", then pretty much all you have left is a tough caster and unpredictable Revive assassinations against opposing squishy casters. Which is ok, all things considered.

At 50pts, you would probably be better off dropping the Feralgeist for a third Gatorman Posse to make the skew even more skewy.
 

Painting Prize

The painting prize for this tournament will be based on the best-looking large- or huge-based model. In short, I have no chance of winning this.
Gators have no huge-based model, and our four large-based heavy beasts are ugly, plain, uninpressive models lacking in outstanding detail. Sure, there are little pieces here and there like the Wrastler's shoulder pad and the Spitter's abdomen and face, but as showpiece models they don't stand a chance vs something like a Titan Bronzeback, a Judicator or a Nightmare. Ah well.

(1) Not on 15th of the month, and also not featuring George Clooney. But there are bound to be plenty of assassinations.
(2) Don't ask why, I don't really get it either. I guess 42pts is a 'thing' now.